If I would need to make a prediction I still believe Kaplan's scenario is very plausible.
Money flows into the US, and inflates US assets, and allows the US to have a monstrous trade deficit. That means we are consuming more than we are producing.
More and more surveys in the US are indicating a change in values taking place among consumers, who become more concerned about quality of life, food, health and the environment.
Europeans say they are proud of their social fabric, of strong rights for workers and the weak in society.
Wall Street sees a social fabric or social contract as inefficiencies, which need to be removed.
More humane societies are usually smaller, like the Scandinavian countries and Holland, where it is much easier to reach consensus and cooperation.
