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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
— Nate Silver
タグ: think, time, you, good

"Nate Silver"の他の名言

There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.
— Nate Silver
タグ: risk, unknown, always
You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.
— Nate Silver
タグ: situation, new, you, good
You get steely nerves playing poker.
— Nate Silver
タグ: poker, playing, get, you
If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot.
— Nate Silver
タグ: taking, representative, get, you
I prefer more to kind of show people different things than tell them 'oh, here's what you should believe' and, over time, you can build up a rapport with your audience.
— Nate Silver
タグ: believe, people, time, you
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